Haohua Energy(SH:601101) Minsheng Securities·2024-04-15 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company's 2023 performance met expectations, with revenue and net profit showing a decline year-on-year, but a positive trend in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 [1]. - The coal production and sales increased in 2023, and the company aims to achieve a coal production capacity of 30 million tons by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]. - The methanol business experienced losses in 2023 but showed signs of recovery in early 2024, while the railway segment's profitability improved [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 8.437 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.040 billion yuan, down 22.60% [1][12]. - For Q4 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 2.317 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.39%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.48% [1]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.413 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.58%, and a net profit of 452 million yuan, up 5.12% year-on-year [1]. Coal Business Overview - In 2023, the company produced and sold 17.0635 million tons and 17.0518 million tons of coal, respectively, both up by approximately 14.5% year-on-year [1]. - The average selling price of coal in 2023 was 448.76 yuan per ton, down 21.98% year-on-year, while the cost was 187.14 yuan per ton, down 18.77% year-on-year [1]. - The coal business's gross margin was 58.30%, a decrease of 1.65 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Methanol and Railway Business Overview - In 2023, the methanol business faced challenges with production and sales down by 24.15% and 25.78% year-on-year, resulting in a gross loss of 229 million yuan [1]. - The railway segment's gross margin was 66.92% in 2023, down 1.93 percentage points year-on-year, with a decrease in transport volume [1]. - In Q1 2024, the methanol business showed a reduction in losses, while the railway segment's gross margin improved to 71.38% year-on-year [1]. Future Outlook - The company projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 1.245 billion yuan, 1.488 billion yuan, and 1.689 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.86, 1.03, and 1.17 yuan per share [1][12]. - The report anticipates continued growth in coal production and sales, alongside a recovery in the methanol business [1].