NHPM(SH:601882) Zhongyuan Securities·2024-04-16 16:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next six months [21][31]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the recovery of the machine tool industry, driven by the accelerated replacement of outdated equipment over ten years old, which is anticipated to catalyze industry demand [7][20]. - The company has shown resilience in a challenging market, achieving a revenue of 33.23 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.59%, and a net profit of 6.09 billion yuan, up 17.06% year-on-year [21][21]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for the company from 40.62 billion yuan in 2024 to 54.09 billion yuan in 2026, with net profits expected to rise from 7.63 billion yuan to 10.38 billion yuan during the same period [21][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2023, China's machine tool industry generated a revenue of 1,097.4 billion yuan, a decline of 10.3% year-on-year, with the metal cutting machine tool sector seeing a revenue of 158.6 billion yuan, down 7.2% [6][6]. - The metal cutting machine tool industry has begun to recover since the fourth quarter of last year, ending a continuous decline that started in 2021, indicating a potential new cycle of growth [7][8]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 33.23 billion yuan in 2023, with a net profit of 6.09 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.59% and 17.06% respectively [21][21]. - The forecast for the company's revenue is 40.62 billion yuan in 2024, 47.4 billion yuan in 2025, and 54.09 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 7.63 billion yuan, 8.93 billion yuan, and 10.38 billion yuan [21][21]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 29.94%, an increase of 2.61 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 18.34%, up 1.95 percentage points [21][21]. - The report highlights that the company has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio, consistently above 30%, reaching as high as 50% in recent years [21][21].