2023年年报点评：并表拖累短期业绩，疆外扩张稳步推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianrun Dairy (600419.SH) [1] Core Views - In 2023, Tianrun Dairy achieved a revenue of 2.714 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.62%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 27.71% to 142 million yuan [1] - The decline in milk prices has impacted the performance of the livestock sector, but the company is steadily expanding outside its home region [1] - The company sold 284,500 tons of dairy products in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 6.21% [1] - The company plans to achieve a dairy product sales volume of 320,000 tons in 2024, representing a growth of 12.48% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of 631 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.04%, but a net profit of -473,400 yuan, a decrease of 101.11% [1] - The gross margin in Q4 2023 was 17.58%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points [1] - The company expects revenues of 3.022 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 10.54% [7] Product and Market Expansion - The revenue from room temperature products in Q4 2023 was 360 million yuan, accounting for 57.48% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 13.01% [1] - The company has increased its number of dealers to 930, with significant growth in the number of dealers outside its home region [1] - The self-sufficiency rate of milk sources reached 92.36% by the end of 2023 [1] Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 3.398 billion yuan and 3.826 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 186 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 31.2% [7]