2023年年报点评：直流输电头部厂商，柔直高景气释放成长潜力

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5][7] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in its new energy and system integration business, with a revenue increase of 14% year-on-year in 2023, reaching 17.1 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 28%, amounting to 1.01 billion yuan [3][4][5] - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing penetration of flexible direct current (DC) transmission projects and the growth of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) systems, which are expected to drive rapid revenue growth [4][5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 171 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and a net profit of 10.1 billion yuan, up 28% year-on-year [3][4] - The gross margin was 18.0%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 7.0%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points [3][4] - For Q4 2023, the revenue was 64 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 80% and a year-on-year increase of 8% [3][4] Business Segments - The smart distribution and transformation system revenue was 4.6 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year, while the new energy and system integration revenue grew by 42% to 3.9 billion yuan [4][5] - The company has a strong market position in the flexible DC transmission sector, with significant project experience and a robust business system in place [4][5] Market Opportunities - The domestic market is expected to see increased investment in digital smart grids, driven by the growing share of renewable energy [5][6] - Internationally, the company is expanding into high-demand markets in Asia, Africa, and South America, with notable project wins in the Middle East and Europe [5][6] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 19.4 billion yuan, 22.1 billion yuan, and 25.4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 1.2 billion yuan, 1.5 billion yuan, and 1.8 billion yuan [5][6][7] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24X for 2024, 19X for 2025, and 16X for 2026 [5][6][7]