深度报告：预期差大、强阿尔法，低估值

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" [7] Core Views - The report highlights that Beijing Human Resources has excellent growth potential, with strong support for future organic growth [6][12] - The company is currently undervalued, with its stock price close to the major shareholder's placement cost, indicating a relatively clean shareholding structure [12][85] - The human resources industry has solid growth fundamentals, driven by continuous improvements in labor laws and enhanced corporate management efficiency [12][23] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Beijing Human Resources (FESCO) is a leading comprehensive human resources service provider in China, established in 1979, with a complete product matrix and high-quality service capabilities [28] - The company operates in traditional businesses such as personnel management and salary benefits, as well as emerging businesses like outsourcing and flexible employment [51][52] 2. Growth Potential - The report emphasizes that the future growth of FESCO will be driven by more aggressive assessments post-listing and a shift from agency to outsourcing, which is a major industry trend [11][42] - The company has a high concentration of large clients, with the top five clients accounting for 36.98% of revenue in 2021, including major companies like Huawei and Alibaba [44] 3. Financial Performance - The financial forecast indicates significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 391.04 billion, 483.35 billion, and 589.14 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 22.8%, 23.6%, and 21.9% [12] - The report predicts that the company will achieve a net profit of 5.39 billion, 9.52 billion, and 10.97 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 350.6%, 76.5%, and 15.3% respectively [12] 4. Industry Outlook - The human resources industry is characterized by a wide growth space and the ability to traverse economic cycles, with a significant market potential in flexible employment [90][92] - The report notes that the industry remains highly fragmented, with the top six players holding only 6% of the market share, indicating opportunities for growth and consolidation [94]