Three Squirrels(SZ:300783) Tianfeng Securities·2024-04-18 00:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [20][35]. Core Insights - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.646 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.83%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 308 million yuan, up 60.80% year-on-year, indicating strong performance that exceeded market expectations [24]. - The company continues to implement a "high-end cost-performance" strategy, focusing on a "one product, one chain" model to enhance product competitiveness and maintain stable gross margins in core categories [6][19]. - The "Dou+N" strategy has significantly boosted the short video business, contributing to overall revenue growth and establishing a mature e-commerce ecosystem [2][25]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to return to over 10 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits for 2024-2026 expected to be 372.52 million yuan, 499.76 million yuan, and 650.24 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 69.49%, 34.16%, and 30.11% [19][26]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 26.29% to 27.56% from 2024 to 2026, indicating effective cost management [5][19]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 5.543 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.289 billion yuan by 2026, with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 40.99% [20][22]. Market Position - The company has solidified its leading position in the nut category within the snack market and is focusing on upgrading key snack products while exploring new channels and categories [6][19]. - The report highlights the establishment of a distribution channel matrix and an extensive sales network covering over 100,000 effective terminals, enhancing market reach [2][19].