SMIC(688981) 申万宏源·2024-04-18 01:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is actively expanding production in a counter-cyclical manner to prepare for the next growth phase [4]. - The 2023 annual report shows a revenue of 45.25 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.61%, and a net profit of 4.823 billion, down 60.25% [4]. - The company expects a revenue growth of no less than the average of comparable peers for 2024 [4]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company achieved a revenue of 121.52 billion in Q4 2023, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, while net profit was 11.48 billion, down 58.2% [4]. - The average selling price (ASP) increased from 6,381 yuan per piece in 2023 to 6,967 yuan per piece due to high-end products driving the price [4]. - The company’s capital expenditure for 2023 was 7.47 billion USD, with guidance for 2024 to remain roughly the same [4]. - The forecast for net profit is adjusted to 4.042 billion for 2024, 5.518 billion for 2025, and 6.956 billion for 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 81, 60, and 47 [5][6]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company’s wafer production capacity increased to 805,500 pieces per month by the end of Q4 2023, up 91,500 pieces from the beginning of the year [4]. - The semiconductor cycle is believed to have bottomed out, with inventory depletion nearing completion, indicating potential recovery [4]. - The focus on mature process nodes, particularly the 28nm process, is expected to drive growth in automotive and industrial chip markets [4].