Sinocelltech(SH:688520) Huafu Securities·2024-04-18 09:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant revenue growth of 84.46% in 2023, with total revenue reaching 1.887 billion yuan, and is projected to continue this trend with an estimated revenue of 6.0-6.2 billion yuan in Q1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 82.12% to 88.21% [1][2]. - The company has successfully turned a profit in Q1 2024, with a projected net profit of 60-80 million yuan, marking a pivotal shift from previous losses [1]. - The restructuring of the coagulation factor VIII product has led to a revenue of 1.78 billion yuan in 2023, with a gross margin of 97.42%, supported by cost advantages from large-scale production [1]. - The product matrix is expanding, with several biosimilars entering the national medical insurance catalog, which is expected to drive rapid growth in sales [1]. - Research and development expenses are projected to decrease in 2024, with a focus on advancing multiple competitive pipelines, including a 14-valent HPV vaccine and various monoclonal antibodies [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is forecasted to increase from 2.798 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.645 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 48%, 36%, and 22% respectively [2][11]. - Net profit is expected to rise significantly, from 410 million yuan in 2024 to 1.169 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 204%, 92%, and 48% respectively [2][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.89 yuan in 2023 to 2.63 yuan in 2026 [2][11]. Valuation - The report assigns a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 10x for 2024, leading to a target market capitalization of 28 billion yuan and a target price of 62.84 yuan per share [1][3].