CATL(SZ:300750) Huafu Securities·2024-04-19 01:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 273.5 CNY per share, based on a 25x PE for 2024 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated solid performance in Q1 2024, with a non-recurring net profit growth of 19% year-on-year, despite a 10% decline in revenue [2]. - The cash flow from operating activities reached 28.4 billion CNY in Q1 2024, reflecting a significant 35% year-on-year increase, indicating strong inventory and operational management [2]. - The company is expected to increase its battery shipment volume to 95 GWh in Q1 2024, representing a 22% year-on-year growth [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 48.1 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 9% [3][7]. - The expected revenue for 2024 is 366.5 billion CNY, reflecting a 9% decrease compared to 2023 [3][7]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to be 24.9% in 2024, with a net margin of 14.0% [7]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 48.1 billion CNY, 56.7 billion CNY, and 65.5 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18x, 15x, and 13x [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's strong cash generation capabilities, which will support its global and domestic manufacturing strategies [2][3]. Key Financial Metrics - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 10.94 CNY in 2024, increasing to 14.88 CNY by 2026 [3][7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 19.7 in 2023 to 18.0 in 2024 [3][7]. - The company's asset-liability ratio is forecasted to improve from 68.5% in 2023 to 63.7% in 2024 [7].