山东出版：分红大超预期，创新业务有望加速落地

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shandong Publishing, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [3][23]. Core Insights - Shandong Publishing's 2023 net profit reached 2.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.1%, while total revenue was 12.15 billion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year [3][8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.17 billion yuan, representing a payout ratio of 49.2%, which is a historical high [3][4]. - The main business remains stable, with a revenue increase of 11.4% in the publishing sector, and the company is focusing on innovative business models in the education sector [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's total revenue was 12,154 million yuan, with a net profit of 2,376 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 1,570 million yuan [3][8]. - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw revenue of 4,100 million yuan, a 5.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1,120 million yuan, which represents a significant 105.7% increase year-on-year [8][12]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 37.1%, and the net profit margin reached 19.5%, an increase of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [12][15]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is set at 13,348 million yuan, 14,826 million yuan, and 16,491 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.82%, 11.08%, and 11.23% [4][15]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is 1,847 million yuan, 2,055 million yuan, and 2,301 million yuan, with growth rates of -22.26%, 11.27%, and 11.94% respectively [4][15]. Cost Management - The company maintained stable expense ratios in 2023, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 10.9%, 12.5%, and 0.2%, respectively, showing slight increases year-on-year [10][12]. - In Q4 2023, the sales and management expense ratios were 13.5% and 15.5%, reflecting a controlled increase in operational costs [10][12]. Strategic Developments - Shandong Publishing is expanding its presence in the elderly cultural industry by acquiring relevant media outlets and exploring new business models such as "Elderly University" [4][10]. - The company is also focusing on innovative educational products and services, including a project that integrates educational materials with big data technology [4][10].