lu'an EED(SH:601699) Tebon Securities·2024-04-19 10:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2023, with total revenue of 43.137 billion yuan, down 20.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.922 billion yuan, down 44.1% year-on-year [5] - The coal production and sales increased slightly, but the prices decreased, leading to pressure on performance [5] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 4.753 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 60%, resulting in a high dividend yield of 6.6% [6] - Future profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 7.33 billion, 7.77 billion, and 7.98 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.45, 2.60, and 2.67 yuan [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 431.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 79.22 billion yuan, down 44.1% year-on-year [5] - For Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of 10.124 billion yuan, down 29.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.652 billion yuan, down 86.7% year-on-year [5] - In Q1 2024, total revenue was 8.659 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.288 billion yuan, down 61.9% year-on-year [6] Production and Sales Data - In 2023, the company produced 60.46 million tons of raw coal and sold 54.98 million tons of commercial coal, representing increases of 6.3% and 3.9% year-on-year respectively [5] - The average selling price of commercial coal was 728 yuan per ton, down 21.8% year-on-year [5] - In Q1 2024, raw coal production and commercial coal sales were 13.24 million tons and 11.81 million tons, down 9.93% and 7.08% year-on-year respectively [6] Dividend and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend yield, with a projected dividend of 0.98 yuan per share in 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.1% [8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 9.79, 9.24, and 9.00 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8] Market Comparison - The company's stock has underperformed compared to the market, with a relative decline of 34% against the CSI 300 index [2][3]