Salubris(002294) 华创证券·2024-04-20 00:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 40.4 RMB, compared to the current price of 28.1 RMB [1] Core Views - The company's 2023 performance met expectations, with full-year revenue of 3.365 billion RMB (-3.35% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 580 million RMB (-8.95% YoY) [1] - The decline in revenue from the drug Taikang put pressure on 2023 performance, but the existing risks have been largely released [2] - The innovative pipeline is expected to yield results in 2024, with four new drugs potentially approved within the year [2] - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow by 16%, 15%, and 23% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reaching 5.476 billion RMB by 2026 [2] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's operating income was 3.365 billion RMB (-3.4% YoY), with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 580 million RMB (-8.9% YoY) [3] - The gross margin in 2023 was 68.6%, and the net margin was 17.3% [7] - The company's ROE in 2023 was 7.2%, with an expected increase to 10.2% by 2026 [7] Product Pipeline - The drug Xinyuetan successfully renewed its inclusion in the national medical insurance catalog, with stable growth expected from 2024 onwards [2] - The drug Enadustat completed medical insurance access in 2023 and is expected to contribute to performance starting in 2024 [2] - Four new drugs, including SAL0107 and SAL0108, are expected to be approved in 2024 [2] - The heart failure drug JK07 is set to initiate Phase II patient enrollment in the US in the first half of 2024, with preliminary clinical data expected in Q4 2023 [2] Valuation and Forecast - The company's 2024 reasonable market value is estimated at 45 billion RMB, with a corresponding stock price of 40.4 RMB [2] - The PE ratio for 2024 is projected at 50x, decreasing to 36x by 2026 [3] - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 5.476 billion RMB by 2026, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 860 million RMB [3] Key Financial Ratios - The company's ROIC is expected to increase from 11.9% in 2023 to 16.4% by 2026 [7] - The debt-to-equity ratio is projected to decrease from 7.2% in 2023 to 6.4% by 2026 [7] - The total asset turnover ratio is expected to remain stable at 0.4-0.5 from 2023 to 2026 [7]