Jiahe Foods(SH:605300) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-04-20 14:00Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [2][17] Core Views - The company is currently undergoing product/channel adjustments, with expectations for performance improvement in the future [4][17] - The coffee product structure continues to optimize, with innovative categories maintaining strong growth momentum [5][17] - Increased expenditure on market penetration has kept profitability relatively stable [6][17] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,841 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.0% [7][17] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 258 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 123.4% [7][17] - The company anticipates a revenue decline of 6.0% in 2024, with net profit projected at 214 million yuan, a decrease of 16.8% [7][17] - Gross margin is expected to be 17.9% in 2024, while net margin is projected at 8.0% [7][19] Product and Channel Performance - In Q4 2023, revenue from various product categories showed mixed results, with plant-based products growing by 43.2% and coffee products declining by 18.6% [18][17] - The company is focusing on new product launches to meet changing consumer preferences, particularly in the liquid milk segment [18][17] - The coffee business is expected to stabilize and return to growth due to product mix optimization and new customer acquisition efforts [18][17] Expense Management - The company has increased its sales and marketing expenses to support new customer acquisition, with sales expense ratio at 3.13% in 2023 [19][17] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 18%, benefiting from raw material cost advantages [19][17] - The net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 9.1%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [19][17]