Jiahe Foods(SH:605300) Minsheng Securities·2024-04-21 01:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Jiahe Food (605300 SH) [15] Core Views - Jiahe Food achieved revenue of 2 841 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 17 04% Net profit attributable to the parent company was 258 million yuan, up 123 39% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2024, revenue was 541 million yuan, down 15 61% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 46 million yuan, down 27 71% year-on-year [1] - The company's non-dairy creamer and coffee businesses faced short-term pressure due to off-season effects and downstream price competition [1] - The company is expected to expand its market share in the medium to long term through increased penetration of coffee and oat milk products [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2023 revenue: 2 841 billion yuan (+17 04% YoY) [1] - 2023 net profit: 258 million yuan (+123 39% YoY) [1] - 2024 Q1 revenue: 541 million yuan (-15 61% YoY) [1] - 2024 Q1 net profit: 46 million yuan (-27 71% YoY) [1] Product Breakdown - Q4 2023 non-dairy creamer revenue: 481 million yuan (-22 78% YoY) [1] - Q4 2023 coffee revenue: 81 million yuan (+7 65% YoY) [1] - Q1 2024 non-dairy creamer revenue: 313 million yuan (-35 18% YoY) [1] - Q1 2024 coffee revenue: 45 million yuan (-18 61% YoY) [1] Profitability - 2023 gross margin: +5 69 pcts YoY [1] - Q4 2023 gross margin: 16 59% (+1 11 pcts YoY) [1] - Q1 2024 gross margin: +0 98 pcts YoY [1] Future Outlook - Expected 2024-2026 revenue: 2 93 3 25 3 64 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3 2% 10 7% 12 0% respectively [1] - Expected 2024-2026 net profit: 230 270 300 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -9 9% +14 6% +13 1% respectively [1] - Current P/E ratios for 2024-2026: 23X 20X 18X [1] Industry Analysis - The domestic non-dairy creamer supply is relatively sufficient, and the company is actively expanding foreign trade business to find new growth points [1] - The coffee business leverages the company's supply chain advantages to achieve large-scale procurement of high-quality raw materials [1] - The company's layout in ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee and oat milk products is expected to drive medium to long-term development [1]