公司事件点评报告：盈利表现承压，海外市场增速延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2024 was below expectations, with total revenue of 3.483 billion yuan (+3%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 319 million yuan (-9%) [4] - The gross margin decreased by 1 percentage point to 24.66%, primarily due to the increased proportion of low-margin overseas market and trade business [4] - The company is expected to see a recovery in gross margin as costs for molasses, energy, and other raw materials decline [4] - The company is expanding its trade products as planned, with revenue from yeast and deep-processed products reaching 2.450 billion yuan (+5%), mainly driven by growth in overseas markets [5] - The company’s net profit margin decreased by 1 percentage point to 9.47%, but profitability is expected to gradually recover with the commissioning of projects in Egypt and Russia [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported total revenue of 34.83 billion yuan, a 3% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 9% to 3.19 billion yuan [4] - The sales and management expense ratios were stable at 4.84% and 3.69%, respectively [4] - The company’s revenue from the domestic market was 21.04 billion yuan (-5%), while revenue from the overseas market was 13.70 billion yuan (+17%) [5] Market Expansion - The company is experiencing high growth in overseas markets, with international revenue contributing significantly to overall performance [5] - The number of distributors increased to 22,812, with a net addition of 459 distributors since the end of 2023 [5] - E-commerce channels continue to face challenges, with online revenue declining by 3% to 1.130 billion yuan [5] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to recover its profitability as it leverages its scale, channel, and service advantages for global expansion [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.59 yuan, 1.96 yuan, and 2.32 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19, 15, and 13 times [9]