LI AUTO(02015) 国联证券·2024-04-21 02:02Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 114.80 HKD [8]. Core Insights - The launch of the Li L6 model enhances the product matrix of Li Auto, with two configurations priced at 249,800 and 279,800 RMB, respectively [2][3]. - The Li L6 is expected to lead in sales due to its competitive positioning in the B and C SUV segments, which saw significant growth in 2023 [4][11]. - The company is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with estimated revenues of 184.4 billion, 296.8 billion, and 373.8 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 48.9%, 60.9%, and 25.9% [6][21]. Summary by Sections Product Development - The Li L6 completes the product matrix, which includes the Mega MPV, L9/L8 six-seat SUV, and L7/L6 five-seat SUV, catering to family vehicle needs [3][10]. - The Li L6 features advanced specifications, including superior air quality monitoring and high-end audio systems, enhancing its appeal in the market [3]. Market Potential - The B and C SUV markets are expanding, with sales of 3.679 million and 1.017 million units in 2023, representing year-on-year growth of 15.1% and 82.3%, respectively [4][11]. - The Li L6, as a range-extended model, is expected to convert sales from traditional fuel vehicles and some electric models, with a conservative estimate of over 20,000 units sold monthly [4][19]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates significant profit growth, with net profits projected at 14.59 billion, 24.26 billion, and 37.25 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating growth rates of 24.6%, 66.4%, and 53.5% [6][21]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise to 6.87, 11.43, and 17.55 RMB for the same years, with a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 47.1% [6][21].