BUCID(SH:600266) Southwest Securities·2024-04-21 05:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 4.56 CNY over the next six months [1][3][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a turnaround in profitability, reporting a net profit of 558.9 million CNY in 2023, compared to a loss in the previous year. The revenue for 2023 was 20.36 billion CNY, a decrease of 17.1% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced revenue recognition in the real estate sector [18][3]. - Sales volume increased significantly, with a sales area of 735,000 square meters, up 41.6% year-on-year, and sales revenue of 32.6 billion CNY, a 7.4% increase. The company ranked second among Beijing real estate firms for three consecutive years [2][3]. - The company has expanded its land reserves, acquiring a total building area of 822,000 square meters, with a rights area of 567,900 square meters. The quality of the land reserves is high, with 25 projects awaiting development, totaling a planned area of 2.13 million square meters [2][3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.5% for net profit attributable to shareholders from 2024 to 2026. The expected net profit for 2024 is 1.08 billion CNY, with further increases projected in subsequent years [3][4]. - Revenue is expected to recover, with projected figures of 20.36 billion CNY in 2024, 23.75 billion CNY in 2025, and 26.18 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 16.6%, 10.3%, and 8.2% respectively [4][39]. - The report highlights a strong cash position, with cash and cash equivalents of 13.69 billion CNY at the end of 2023, and a net cash flow from operations of 13.12 billion CNY, up 57.3% year-on-year [18][4]. Business Development - The company is diversifying its business, with a commercial real estate holding of 464,000 square meters and a revenue of 650 million CNY from commercial properties. The first self-operated project, Chengyuehui, has successfully opened [19]. - In the cultural tourism sector, the Huangshan project has made progress, with the first batch of residential units successfully launched and hotel management agreements signed [19]. - The company is also involved in urban renewal projects, with 11 land development and urban renewal projects under construction or in the preliminary stages, covering a total planned area of 7.72 million square meters and an estimated total investment of approximately 106.5 billion CNY [19].