Amlogic(688099) 西南证券·2024-04-21 05:30Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 68.00 yuan (6 months) [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 5.37 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 500 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.5% [2] - For Q1 2024, the company expects revenue of 1.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 130 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 310.7% [2] - Q4 2023 saw significant improvement in gross margin, reaching 39.1%, up 3.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company's first 6nm commercial chip has been successfully taped out, with potential applications in automotive and smart devices [2] - The company's WiFi tri-mode chip (WiFi 6+BT 5.4+802.15.4) has been successfully taped out, supporting Thread/Zigbee and enabling applications in IoT gateways and Matter controllers [2] - The 8K chip has passed operator certification tests and is expected to enter mass commercial use in the domestic operator market [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was 5.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 500 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.5% [2] - Q4 2023 revenue was 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.2%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 180 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 296.8% [2] - Gross margin in Q4 2023 improved to 39.1%, up 3.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - R&D expenses in Q1 2024 were 330 million yuan, with share-based payment expenses of 40 million yuan [2] Product and Market Outlook - Global smart set-top box shipments are expected to grow by 8.79% in 2024, driven by economic stabilization and the "smart replacement" trend [2] - The company has deepened cooperation with Google, Amazon, Roku, and RDK TV, and added new ecosystem partners such as Xumo and TIVO TV in 2023 [2] - The company's S-series chips are benefiting from the recovery in set-top box demand, while the T-series is gaining market share overseas [9] - The W-series WiFi6 products were successfully shipped in 2023, and the new tri-mode chip is expected to enter mass production soon [9] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 6.54 billion yuan (+21.8%), 7.89 billion yuan (+20.7%), and 9.55 billion yuan (+21%) respectively [9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is projected to be 710 million yuan (+42.5%), 940 million yuan (+31.9%), and 1.13 billion yuan (+21%) respectively [9] - EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 1.70 yuan, 2.24 yuan, and 2.71 yuan respectively [9] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is projected to be 32x, 24x, and 20x respectively [9] Valuation - The target price of 68.00 yuan is based on a 40x PE ratio for 2024 [9] - The average PE ratio of three comparable companies in the chip design industry is 57x for 2024 [9] - The company's three-year compound growth rate for net profit is expected to be 31.5% [9]