YTCO(600066) 长江证券·2024-04-21 05:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus, citing its strong growth potential and high dividend payout capability [3][7] Core Views - The bus industry has entered a new growth cycle in 2023, with domestic sales recovery and high export growth driving the sector [2][4] - Yutong Bus, as a global leader with a wide moat, is well-positioned to benefit from overseas expansion, particularly in the context of the "Belt and Road" initiative [2][4] - The domestic market is undergoing a reshuffle in the post-subsidy era, with significant room for growth in the new energy segment [2][7] - Overseas markets offer approximately twice the space of the domestic market, with electrification in developed countries and Yutong's global strategy driving profitability [2][5] - Yutong's capital expenditure is slowing, while sales and penetration rates are increasing, leading to improved profitability [2][7] Industry Overview - The bus industry experienced a six-year decline in sales before stabilizing in 2023, with domestic sales recovery and strong export growth marking the start of a new growth cycle [4][14] - The domestic market is supported by the recovery of the tourism sector, while exports are expected to continue high growth, with overseas markets becoming a key growth driver [4][14] - The bus industry is cyclical, with historical peaks driven by infrastructure development and urbanization, followed by a decline due to subsidy reductions and competition from high-speed rail and private cars [14] - In 2023, the large and medium-sized bus market saw sales of 87,900 units, a 4.4% year-on-year increase, signaling a recovery [14] Yutong Bus Performance - Yutong's total sales in 2023 reached 36,500 units, a 20.9% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales growing by 7.5% and exports surging by 78.9% [4][28] - The company's export sales accounted for 27.8% of total sales, up 9 percentage points from the previous year [28] - Yutong's revenue and net profit have shown strong growth over the past 26 years, with 2023 revenue reaching 27 billion yuan and net profit of 1.82 billion yuan [30] - The company's gross margin and net margin have been recovering, with gross margin reaching 25.6% and net margin at 6.7% in 2023 [31] Overseas Market Opportunities - The overseas market offers approximately twice the space of the domestic market, with global bus market recovery and electrification trends in developed countries driving growth [5][35] - In 2023, China's large and medium-sized bus exports reached 34,000 units, a 74.3% year-on-year increase, with Asia being the largest market [36][37] - Europe is experiencing rapid growth in new energy bus adoption, with policies driving the transition to cleaner energy vehicles [40][43] - Yutong's export sales in 2023 reached 10,139 units, accounting for 31.9% of total sales, with a market share of 5.8% in the overseas large and medium-sized bus market [55][69] Competitive Advantages - Yutong has built a wide moat through economies of scale, full industry chain integration, and technological leadership [49][50] - The company's product matrix covers various bus types and energy forms, including pure electric and hydrogen fuel cell buses [50][52] - Yutong's R&D investment in 2023 reached 1.085 billion yuan, accounting for 5.72% of revenue, significantly higher than its peers [62] - The company has a well-established global sales and service network, with over 320 authorized service stations and 410 service outlets overseas [65][66] Dividend Stability - Yutong's capital expenditure is expected to decline, while free cash flow is projected to remain high, supporting stable high dividend payouts [6][71] - In 2023, the company distributed a dividend of 1.5 yuan per share, totaling 3.32 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 182.8% and a dividend yield of approximately 6.22% [7]