HLGF(600346) 国泰君安·2024-04-21 05:32Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 19.36, down from the previous target of 20.00, while the current price is 16.09 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company's 2023 performance met expectations, with a high dividend payout emphasizing shareholder returns and driving value reassessment. The establishment of a world-class refining platform is expected to create opportunities in green and low-carbon new materials [2]. - Due to rising crude oil costs squeezing chemical product spreads, the earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been lowered to 1.21 and 1.46 respectively, with a new 2026 EPS forecast of 1.91 [2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 234.87 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.61%, and a net profit of 6.91 billion, up 197.83% year-on-year. The Q4 revenue was 61.7 billion, with a net profit of 1.20 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 131.90% [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.87 billion in 2023, representing 56% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, which significantly exceeds the capital raised from the market since its restructuring in 2016 [2]. - Leveraging its "large chemical" platform, the company is focusing on emerging industries, with new material capacities such as high-performance resins and functional films expected to be released [2]. Financial Summary - The company reported total revenue of 234.87 billion in 2023, with projections of 264.96 billion for 2024 and 291.46 billion for 2025, reflecting growth rates of 12% and 10% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 6.91 billion, with forecasts of 8.51 billion for 2024 and 10.26 billion for 2025, indicating growth rates of 23% and 21% respectively [4]. - The company's operating profit margin for 2023 was 5.9%, with projections of 4.3% for 2024 and 4.7% for 2025 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) for 2023 was 11.5%, with expectations of 12.4% in 2024 and 13.0% in 2025 [4].