yyfp(SH:600963) Minsheng Securities·2024-04-21 11:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 revenue was 1.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.31%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 81 million yuan, down 7.60% year-on-year. The company reported a net profit of -41 million yuan after deducting non-recurring items, indicating a shift to a loss compared to the previous year [2]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to reduced market demand and increased competition, particularly with new production capacities from competitors. The average selling price of paper products has also decreased compared to the same period last year [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2024 was 7.05%, down 4.76 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to falling paper prices. The company anticipates a potential rebound in demand and profitability as the market stabilizes [2]. - The company has signed contracts for carbon credit development covering 4.42 million acres, with expectations to reach 5 million acres by 2025. The resumption of CCER trading is expected to enhance profit margins from carbon credit income [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company forecasts total revenue of 8.64 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -11.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 419 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from a loss of 238 million yuan in 2023 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.23 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 [3]. - The report outlines a gradual improvement in profitability, with net profits expected to reach 548 million yuan in 2025 and 633 million yuan in 2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 15 and 13, respectively [3].