长虹美菱24年一季报点评：

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changhong Meiling is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's Q1 2024 revenue reached 5.94 billion yuan, representing an 18.2% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 156 million yuan, up 26.93% year-on-year [2] - The report indicates that external sales are driving revenue growth, with Q1 internal sales estimated at 4 billion yuan and external sales at 2 billion yuan, with external sales growing faster than internal sales [2] - The report anticipates continued improvement in profitability, with net profit margins for Q1 at 2.6% and 3.1% for attributable and non-attributable net profit respectively, both showing an increase [2] Revenue Analysis - Q1 revenue growth is primarily driven by external sales, with air conditioning internal sales up 34% and external sales up 19% [2] - The report expects Q1 internal sales pressure for air conditioning to improve compared to Q4 [2] - For refrigerators and washing machines, internal sales are projected to grow year-on-year, with external sales growth outpacing internal sales [2] Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for Q1 was 13.4%, showing a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.3 percentage points and 0.6 percentage points respectively, attributed to rising commodity costs and structural changes [2] - The report projects that the net profit margin for air conditioning will be between 2-3% and for refrigerators and washing machines around 3%, indicating ongoing improvement [2] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company has sufficient backlog, with contract liabilities at 470 million yuan, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase [2] - The investment recommendation emphasizes the company's core focus on "profitability + incentives," suggesting significant room for improvement in gross and net profit margins compared to peers [2] Financial Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 28.1 billion, 31.0 billion, and 34.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 15.8%, 10.5%, and 9.9% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 900 million, 1.018 billion, and 1.153 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 22%, 12%, and 13% respectively [5]