Jiahe Foods(SH:605300) Soochow Securities·2024-04-21 23:30Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment rating to "Accumulate" due to short-term performance pressures and changes in customer demand, while maintaining a long-term focus on expanding customer base and improving coffee business structure [17]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 2.841 billion yuan and a net profit of 257.75 million yuan for 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17% and 123% respectively [1]. - In Q1 2024, revenue and net profit were 540 million yuan and 46 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 16% and 28% [1]. - The company aims to deepen its presence in the tea beverage industry and expand into the self-made beverage market in restaurants, while also increasing production capacity in the coffee sector [3]. Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin for 2023 was 17.97%, an increase of 5.68 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material prices and effective cost management [2]. - The sales expense ratio was 3.13% in Q4, up 0.36 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to a net profit margin of 9.03%, which is an increase of 4.28 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company expects stable gross margins throughout the year due to ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2023, the revenue from various product lines was as follows: plant-based creamers at 1.926 billion yuan, coffee at 261 million yuan, plant-based products at 106 million yuan, and other businesses (such as syrups) at 361 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 22%, 21%, and 41% respectively [8]. - For Q1 2024, revenues from plant-based creamers, coffee, plant-based products, and other businesses were 300 million yuan, 45 million yuan, 20 million yuan, and 100 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -35%, -19%, -10%, and +51% respectively [9]. Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts net profits of 246.79 million yuan for 2024, 290.32 million yuan for 2025, and 355.77 million yuan for 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.80, 18.53, and 15.12 [1][17]. - The expected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 9.71% for 2024, 13.82% for 2025, and 17.39% for 2026 [1].