长虹美菱2024Q1点评：远期拖累表观业绩，剔除后利润率稳健

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of 10.04 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 revenue slightly exceeded expectations, driven by strong performance in both air conditioning and overseas sales [3]. - The adjusted net profit growth rate is impressive at 80%, with the net profit margin slightly above the previous year's rate [4]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from inventory replenishment in Q2, with projected revenue growth rates of 12%, 11%, and 9% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022A: 20,215 million CNY - 2023A: 24,248 million CNY (20% YoY growth) - 2024E: 27,072 million CNY (12% YoY growth) - 2025E: 30,020 million CNY (11% YoY growth) - 2026E: 32,850 million CNY (9% YoY growth) [1]. - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022A: 245 million CNY - 2023A: 741 million CNY (203% YoY growth) - 2024E: 886 million CNY (20% YoY growth) - 2025E: 1,046 million CNY (18% YoY growth) - 2026E: 1,195 million CNY (14% YoY growth) [1]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024E: 0.72 CNY - 2025E: 0.86 CNY - 2026E: 1.02 CNY [1]. - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023: 4% - 2024E: 12% - 2025E: 13% - 2026E: 13% [1]. - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2024E: 42 - 2025E: 14 - 2026E: 12 [1].