xinje(603416) 华创证券·2024-04-22 04:01Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Revenue growth and gross margin improved quarter by quarter, with Q4 revenue reaching 424 million yuan, up 28.5% YoY, and gross margin at 41.3%, up 1.5 percentage points YoY [1] - Despite the downturn in industrial automation demand, the company's revenue growth and gross margin showed a continuous upward trend throughout 2023 [1] - The company's PLC and servo products achieved growth in 2023, with market share further increasing, indicating a continuation of import substitution trends [1] - The company's R&D investment increased in 2023, with R&D expense ratio at 9.76%, up 0.81 percentage points YoY, and R&D personnel accounting for 31.6% of total staff [1] Business Performance Drive Systems - Drive system revenue reached 730 million yuan in 2023, up 22.7% YoY, outperforming the domestic servo market, which declined by 4.1% [1] - The company's servo product market share in China increased from 2.6% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023, ranking third among domestic brands [1] - Drive system gross margin was 24.3%, up 0.34 percentage points YoY, with expectations of further improvement in 2023 [1] - The company is accelerating product iteration, with plans for significant upgrades in the next-generation servo system (DS5 series) [1] PLC Business - PLC revenue reached 535 million yuan in 2023, up 4.81% YoY, while the domestic small PLC market declined by 14.1% [1] - The company's small PLC market share in China increased from 6.4% in 2022 to 7.5% in 2023, ranking second among domestic brands [1] - PLC gross margin remained high at 54.0%, serving as a key profit driver for the company [1] - The domestic small PLC market is still dominated by foreign brands (61.8%), indicating significant potential for import substitution [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 1,844 million yuan, 2,237 million yuan, and 2,695 million yuan, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 22.5%, 21.4%, and 20.4% [1][5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is expected to be 265 million yuan, 345 million yuan, and 435 million yuan, with YoY growth rates of 33.1%, 30.2%, and 26.2% [1][5] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.88 yuan, 2.45 yuan, and 3.10 yuan, respectively [1][5] - The company's target price is set at 43.2 yuan, based on a 2024 PE ratio of 23x [1] Industry Context - The company's performance is closely tied to the recovery of the manufacturing sector, with expectations of a rebound in industrial automation demand [1] - The domestic PLC and servo markets are undergoing a transition, with increasing opportunities for domestic players to replace foreign brands [1]