GDPD(SH:600795) Southwest Securities·2024-04-22 09:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 6.25 CNY over the next six months [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit, achieving 5.61 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 104.4%, despite a 7.0% decrease in revenue to 181 billion CNY [2][3]. - The coal-fired power segment showed notable performance with a net profit of 8.53 billion CNY, while the renewable energy segment also experienced substantial growth, contributing 2.23 billion CNY to net profit [2][3]. - Financial expenses decreased, leading to an increase in the net profit margin by 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 181,000 million CNY, down 7.02% from the previous year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5,608.59 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 104.41% [4][17]. - The average on-grid electricity price for coal-fired power was 461.3 CNY/MWh, remaining stable compared to the previous year, while the average on-grid prices for wind and solar power decreased by 7.4% and 8.2%, respectively [2][3]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected at 7.23 billion CNY, 8.22 billion CNY, and 9.23 billion CNY, respectively [3][17]. - The estimated total market value of the company is projected to be 111.54 billion CNY based on the valuation of its various segments [3][13]. Segment Performance - The coal-fired segment is expected to maintain a cost advantage, while the renewable energy segment is projected to grow significantly, with installed capacity increasing by 7.25 million kW [2][3]. - The financial metrics indicate a decrease in financial expense ratio to 3.7%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower funding costs [2][3].