2024年一季报点评：电商+外围渠道增长亮眼，成长动能充足

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance above the market index over the next six months [24][33]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth in both e-commerce and peripheral channels, with Q1 2024 revenue reaching 770 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.4% [23]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2024 was 100 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.1% [23]. - The e-commerce channel achieved revenue of 300 million yuan in Q1 2024, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 150.5% [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand presence through targeted promotions on platforms like Douyin, which has led to increased brand awareness and sales across various e-commerce platforms [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 54.4%, up 7.5 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a higher proportion of high-margin products like probiotics [13]. - The total expense ratio was 39%, an increase of 9.8 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expenses rising significantly to 34.4% [13]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2024 was 13.4%, which is better than the full-year level of 2023 [13]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 2.72 billion yuan, 3.34 billion yuan, and 4.07 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 307 million yuan, 397 million yuan, and 504 million yuan [16]. - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.72 yuan, 0.93 yuan, and 1.18 yuan, with PE ratios of 25, 20, and 16 [24][34]. Market Expansion - The company is expanding its market presence in peripheral provinces, with revenue from these areas growing significantly [2]. - The focus on high-end product lines and the health series, particularly probiotics, is expected to enhance the company's market position and profitability [33].