2024年一季报点评：团餐继续回暖，期待单店改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Babifood (605338) with a target price of 21.60 RMB, down from the previous target of 23.90 RMB [21][15]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of group meal services and improvements in single-store performance. The report highlights the ongoing expansion of franchise stores and the positive trend in group meal business [21][15]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 354 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.74%, with net profit of 40 million RMB, reflecting a decrease of 3.43% year-on-year [21][15]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profitability due to cost control and operational efficiency, despite challenges in single-store sales recovery [21][15]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Babifood are as follows: 1,525 million RMB in 2022, 1,630 million RMB in 2023, and an estimated 1,904 million RMB in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 11% and 7% respectively [21][15]. - The net profit forecast shows a decline from 223 million RMB in 2022 to 214 million RMB in 2023, with an expected increase to 243 million RMB in 2024 [21][15]. - The report notes a decrease in the operating profit margin from 13.6% in 2022 to 11.9% in 2023, with a projected recovery to 12.5% in 2024 [21][15]. Market Position and Competitors - Babifood operates in the frozen food sector, focusing on Chinese-style pastries and group meal services. The company is expanding its market presence through franchise operations and direct sales [21][15]. - The report includes a comparative valuation table with peers such as Aijia Foods and Qianwei Yangchun, highlighting Babifood's competitive position in terms of earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [3][21]. Operational Insights - The company has opened 203 new franchise stores while closing 152, resulting in a net increase of 51 stores. The average revenue per franchise store has shown a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [21][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding into new regions and enhancing product offerings to drive future growth [21][15].