2024Q1点评：肉制品吨利新高，屠宰养殖业务拖累整体利润

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a decline in total revenue and net profit for Q1 2024, attributed to a weak external environment and high base effects from the previous year. However, the profit per ton for meat products reached a historical high [3][4] - The company aims to improve sales volume of meat products throughout the year, with expectations of significant profit per ton exceeding 4000 yuan [3] - The slaughtering business showed stable fresh product profits, but frozen product profits were a drag on overall performance. The company anticipates a stable average price for pigs throughout the year [3] - The breeding business faced losses, primarily due to declining prices for poultry. However, there are improvements in operational indicators, and profits are expected to improve over the year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 14.31 billion yuan, down 8.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.272 billion yuan, down 14.5% year-on-year [3] - Revenue from meat products was 6.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.5% year-on-year, while operating profit increased by 16% to 1.89 billion yuan [3] - The slaughtering business generated revenue of 6.60 billion yuan, down 16.5% year-on-year, with operating profit declining by 69% [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its previous earnings forecast, expecting revenues of 64.7 billion, 68.8 billion, and 72.3 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.6%, 6.5%, and 5.0% [4] - Net profits are projected to be 5.49 billion, 5.77 billion, and 6.11 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 8.6%, 5.2%, and 5.9% [4] - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.58, 1.67, and 1.76 yuan, with P/E ratios of 17x, 17x, and 16x respectively [4]