PJRC(600395) 民生证券·2024-04-23 07:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company faced significant pressure in 2023, with a 20.60% year-on-year decline in revenue to 9.4 billion yuan and a 66.62% drop in net profit to 732 million yuan. The first quarter of 2024 also showed a decline in revenue by 31.91% year-on-year to 1.949 billion yuan and a 93.92% decrease in net profit to 21.32 million yuan [1]. - The company is gradually forming an integrated coal, electricity, and new energy structure, with significant production plans for 2024, including a target of 15.6 million tons of raw coal production, which is a 1.93% increase [1]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends amounting to 6.01 billion yuan, representing 82.06% of the 2023 net profit, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.37% [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company produced 11.27 million tons of coal, a decrease of 3.6% year-on-year, and sold 11.53 million tons, down 9.61%. The average selling price of coal was 782.16 yuan per ton, a decline of 13.61% [1]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw coal production drop to 203.73 million tons, a 35.72% decrease, and sales fell to 190.07 million tons, down 45.67%. The average selling price increased by 12.1% to 894.41 yuan per ton, but costs also rose by 16.7% to 665.61 yuan per ton [1]. Future Outlook - The company expects total revenue of 10.13 billion yuan in 2024, a 7.73% increase, and a profit of 1.1 billion yuan, up 19.24% [1]. - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated at 805 million yuan, 979 million yuan, and 1.204 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.37, 0.46, and 0.56 yuan per share [1][4]. Integrated Development - The company is advancing its coal and electricity integration strategy, with new coal production capacity of 2.1 million tons per year and significant progress in renewable energy projects, including over 1 million kilowatts of installed capacity [1].