2024年一季报点评:增势再超预期,费投蓄力旺季

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) with a target price of 240 CNY, compared to the current price of 195.60 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company reported a strong Q1 2024 performance with revenue of 3.482 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 39.80%, and a net profit of 664 million CNY, up 33.51% year-on-year [2]. - The growth was driven by a significant increase in the number of distribution points and effective marketing strategies during the Spring Festival [2]. - The company is expected to continue its strong growth momentum into the peak season, supported by new product launches and increased investment in distribution infrastructure [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 revenue reached 3.482 billion CNY, up 39.80% year-on-year, while net profit was 664 million CNY, reflecting a 33.51% increase [2][5]. - The operating cash flow for Q1 2024 was 860 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.72% [2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 42.77%, slightly down by 0.76 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the higher proportion of new products and elevated sugar prices [2]. Regional and Product Performance - Revenue from different regions in Q1 2024 showed significant growth: Guangdong (9.21 billion CNY, +9.4%), other regions (21.43 billion CNY, +51.2%), and direct sales (4.13 billion CNY, +79.9%) [2]. - The product breakdown indicated that Dongpeng Special Drink generated 3.101 billion CNY in revenue, up 30.1%, while other beverages saw a remarkable increase of 257% [2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its production capacity with new facilities and product lines, aiming to alleviate supply chain pressures [2]. - New product launches are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with a focus on expanding the product matrix to attract new consumer segments [2]. - The report forecasts revenue for 2024 to reach 14.359 billion CNY, with a net profit of 2.7 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 27.5% and 32.4% respectively [5][9].