传承优秀基因，走向世界龙头

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus (600066) [1] Core Views - Yutong Bus has demonstrated a successful export strategy, achieving significant growth in sales, performance, and market capitalization in 2023, leading to a re-evaluation of its value [2] - The report emphasizes Yutong's potential to become a global leader in the bus industry by leveraging overseas demand for new energy vehicles [3] - The analysis highlights the importance of Yutong's management strategies and historical performance in establishing its market leadership [2][3] Summary by Sections Previous Cycle Review - From 2012 to 2016, Yutong solidified its domestic leadership by capitalizing on the new energy bus market, with a revenue CAGR of 16% and a profit CAGR of 27% during this period [2] - The management's proactive strategies, including MBO and early investments in school buses and new energy buses, were crucial for capturing market share [2][3] Current Cycle Outlook - The current cycle from 2020 to 2027 is expected to see Yutong leverage the global new energy vehicle trend, with significant growth in export volumes and revenues anticipated [3] - In 2023, Yutong's revenue grew by 24% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 139%, driven by a 79% increase in export sales [3] - The report forecasts continued strong growth in exports, with expectations of over 30% growth in 2024 and 2025 [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Yutong's projected revenues for 2024 to 2026 are 34.73 billion, 41.45 billion, and 49.94 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.97 billion, 3.98 billion, and 4.95 billion yuan [1] - The report estimates EPS for the same period to be 1.34, 1.80, and 2.24 yuan, with P/E ratios decreasing from 17.73 to 10.62 [1][3]