高基数下收入承压，零售占比继续提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.60 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE valuation of 15 times for 2024 [3][2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.15 billion CNY in Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 350 million CNY, down 9.8% year-on-year [2]. - The ongoing downturn in the real estate market and weak infrastructure demand have pressured revenue, but the company expects growth pressures to ease gradually [2]. - The improvement in channel structure has led to a year-on-year increase in gross margin, while the decline in scale has caused an increase in expense ratio [2]. - Operating cash flow has improved year-on-year, with a net cash flow from operating activities of -1.89 billion CNY, an increase of 1.92 billion CNY compared to the previous year [2]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 3.3 billion CNY, 3.8 billion CNY, and 4.7 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.9, 8.6, and 7.0 times [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 31.214 billion CNY, with a growth rate of -2.3%, and is projected to reach 36.814 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 12.2% [9]. - EBITDA for 2022 was 3.729 billion CNY, expected to rise to 7.111 billion CNY by 2024 [9]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.121 billion CNY in 2022, projected to increase to 3.291 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 44.8% [9]. - The company's EPS was 0.85 CNY in 2022, expected to grow to 1.31 CNY in 2024 [9]. - The company's ROE is projected to improve from 7.9% in 2022 to 11.2% in 2024 [9].