PJRC(SH:600395) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-04-24 07:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% within the next 6 to 12 months [18]. Core Views - The company is projected to experience a decline in revenue and profit due to falling coal prices, with revised revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 at 87.97 billion, 104.38 billion, and 117.31 billion respectively [2][7]. - The expected net profit for the same period is adjusted to 7.52 billion, 8.75 billion, and 9.33 billion, with earnings per share estimated at 0.35, 0.41, and 0.43 [2][7]. - The current stock price of 5.85 yuan corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 16.7X, 14.4X, and 13.5X for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 94.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.60%, and a net profit of 7.32 billion yuan, down 66.62% [1][2]. - The operating cash flow for 2023 was 1.446 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline [17]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates a revenue decline in 2024 to 87.97 billion yuan, followed by a slight recovery in subsequent years [2][7]. - The net profit is expected to recover gradually, reaching 9.33 billion yuan by 2026 [2][7]. Dividend Policy - The company has announced a cash dividend payout ratio of 82.06%, translating to a dividend yield of 4.79% based on the current stock price [2][7]. Market Position - The report highlights challenges in the coal business due to production disruptions and price declines, but notes potential improvements as coal prices stabilize [2][7].