GOTION(002074) 华兴证券·2024-04-24 07:02Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to Guoxuan High-Tech with a target price of RMB 16.70 [1][5] Core Views - Guoxuan High-Tech delivered 45.3 GWh of power and energy storage batteries in 2023, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 201.3% YoY [1] - The company's overseas business is expected to account for 60% of total revenue in 2024, up from 30% in 2023 [1][5] - The report downgrades the target price to RMB 16.70 and the rating to "Hold" due to intensified competition in the domestic battery industry and a higher PEG ratio compared to industry peers [5] Financial Performance - In 2023, Guoxuan High-Tech achieved revenue of RMB 31.605 billion, a 37.1% YoY increase, with a gross margin of 16.9% [1] - The company's 1Q24 revenue was RMB 7.508 billion, with a gross margin of 17.9%, up 0.9 percentage points QoQ [1][2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 1Q24 was RMB 69.1 million, down 8.6% YoY and 89.3% QoQ [2] Profit Forecast - The report lowers the 2024-2025 revenue forecasts by 32.0% and 31.2% to RMB 37.805 billion and RMB 47.252 billion, respectively [3] - The 2024-2025 net profit forecasts are reduced by 40.2% and 43.1% to RMB 1.492 billion and RMB 2.127 billion, respectively [3] - For 2026, the company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 61.471 billion and net profit of RMB 2.945 billion [3] Valuation - The report assigns a 20x P/E ratio for 2024, slightly above the historical average of 18x, resulting in a target price of RMB 16.70 [5] - Guoxuan High-Tech's 2024 PEG ratio is 0.36, higher than the industry average of 0.32 [5] Industry Outlook - The downstream new energy vehicle industry is experiencing a price war, leading to intensified competition in the domestic battery market [5] - The company's overseas business expansion, particularly in the US and Europe, is expected to drive future growth [1][5]