LI AUTO(LI) 光大证券·2024-04-24 07:32Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of US$38.93, corresponding to approximately 16x 2024E P/E [2][3] Core Views - The release of the L6 model is expected to open new growth opportunities, with pricing and configurations largely in line with expectations [2] - The L6 model targets the 25-30万元 SUV market, which accounted for 11% of passenger vehicle retail sales in March 2024 [2] - Intense competition in the 25-30万元 SUV segment, with Tesla Model Y and AITO M7 holding significant market shares (26% and 10% respectively in March 2024) [2] - Product and store expansion into lower-tier cities is expected to drive sales growth, with new store openings concentrated in new first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities (store share increased from 78% in April 2023 to 81% in April 2024) [2] - Matrix Organization 2.0 upgrade aims to enhance user value, operational efficiency, and decision-making capabilities, supporting future product launches [2] - The company is accelerating its intelligent and charging infrastructure layout, with plans to build over 10,000 urban charging piles and 3,000 highway charging piles by the end of 2024 [2] Financial Projections - 2024E/2025E/2026E Non-GAAP net profit forecasts are maintained at 18.9 billion/25.2 billion/26.6 billion yuan [2] - 2024E/2025E/2026E operating revenue is projected to be 188.4 billion/247.4 billion/255.9 billion yuan, with growth rates of 52.1%/31.3%/3.4% [3] - 2024E/2025E/2026E Non-GAAP net profit growth rates are expected to be 55.9%/33.5%/5.6% [3] - Non-GAAP ROE is projected to be 25.9%/26.4%/22.3% for 2024E/2025E/2026E [3] Product and Market Strategy - The L6 model features a spacious and comfortable design, dual-motor all-wheel drive, and intelligent configurations such as AD Max for autonomous driving and AEB parking functions [2] - The company is focusing on user value through intelligent cockpit and driving features, with OTA 5.1 upgrades enhancing smart space and driving capabilities [2] - Plans to establish a dedicated after-sales network in Central Asia and the Middle East by 1H24E, with overseas deliveries starting in 4Q24E [2] Financial Performance - 2023 operating revenue was 123.9 billion yuan, a 173.5% increase year-over-year, with a gross profit of 27.5 billion yuan [10] - 2023 Non-GAAP net profit was 12.1 billion yuan, a significant increase from 41 million yuan in 2022 [10] - Total assets grew from 86.5 billion yuan in 2022 to 143.5 billion yuan in 2023, with cash and equivalents increasing from 40.4 billion yuan to 91.3 billion yuan [11] - Operating cash flow in 2023 was 50.7 billion yuan, driven by a net working capital increase of 36.6 billion yuan [12]