POP MART(HK:09992) Minsheng Securities·2024-04-24 08:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 40%-45% year-on-year for Q1 2024, with domestic revenue increasing by 20%-25% and overseas revenue soaring by 245%-250% [1][2]. - The domestic offline channels are recovering, with retail stores, robot stores, and wholesale channels seeing revenue growth of 20%-25%, 15%-20%, and 50%-55% respectively. Online sales through Douyin have surged by 95%-100% [2]. - The company is expanding its overseas business, particularly in Southeast Asia, with a revenue increase of 134.9% in 2023 for the Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets [2]. - The company is enhancing its product offerings and has launched 28 new products in April 2024, while also diversifying its business model through parks and games [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2024, the company expects a revenue growth of 40%-45%, with domestic revenue up by 20%-25% and overseas revenue up by 245%-250% [1]. - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 10.66 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 64.9% for overseas operations, higher than the domestic margin of 60.6% [2]. - Forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 1.44 billion, 1.96 billion, and 2.35 billion yuan respectively, with a projected P/E ratio of 30X, 22X, and 18X [3]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on a comprehensive operational platform covering the entire toy IP industry chain, with new product launches and the establishment of parks to enhance brand presence [2]. - The company plans to enter new markets in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, with a goal of producing over 10% of its products in overseas factories by 2024 [2]. Market Position - The company has significantly increased its presence in the Douyin platform, with its revenue share rising from 2.9% in 2022 to 16.6% in 2023 [2]. - The number of domestic retail and robot stores reached 363 and 2,190 respectively by the end of 2023, marking an increase of 34 and 123 stores year-on-year [2].