TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(SZ:002532) Huachuang Securities·2024-04-21 16:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum, with a target price of 8.22 CNY, representing an 18% upside from the current price of 6.95 CNY [2][3]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2024 is primarily driven by rising aluminum prices and decreasing production costs, leading to a significant increase in net profit [3]. - The average domestic electrolytic aluminum price in Q1 2024 was 19,047 CNY/ton, up 3.2% year-on-year, while the average price of prebaked anodes decreased by 33% year-on-year [3]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 18.69%, an increase of 6.2 percentage points year-on-year, supported by the favorable pricing environment [3]. - The company has initiated a share repurchase plan, reflecting shareholder confidence in its future development [3]. - The aluminum price is expected to remain high due to stable supply, recovering demand, and macroeconomic support, which bodes well for the company's profitability [3]. Financial Summary - In Q1 2024, Tianshan Aluminum reported total revenue of 68.25 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 1.71%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.2 billion CNY, up 43.55% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company’s operating cash flow net amount reached 10.53 billion CNY, a remarkable increase of 952.81% year-on-year [2][3]. - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 31.9 billion CNY, 41.3 billion CNY, and 49.3 billion CNY, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 44.6%, 29.4%, and 19.5% [3][4].