POP MART(HK:09992) Xinda Securities·2024-04-23 02:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment indicates a positive outlook based on revenue growth and market expansion strategies. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue increase of 40-45% year-on-year for Q1 2024, with significant contributions from overseas markets, particularly Southeast Asia and Europe, where revenue grew by 245-250% [1]. - The company plans to open 50-60 new stores in 2024, aiming to increase its overseas store count to 130-140 by the end of the year, focusing on Western and Southeast Asian markets [1]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings, with the proportion of blind box sales dropping below 70% for the first time, indicating a shift towards new product categories [1]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 83.8 billion, 107.0 billion, and 132.1 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 32%, 28%, and 23% respectively [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 6,301 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 36.4% [3]. - The revenue forecast for 2024 is 8,375 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 32% [3]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit for 2023 is projected at 1,082 million yuan, with a significant increase of 127.55% compared to the previous year [3]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 61.3% in 2023 to 62.7% in 2024 [3]. Market Expansion - The company plans to enter new markets in Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines in 2024, alongside expanding its presence in North America and Europe [1]. - The overseas revenue for 2023 was 1.066 billion yuan, marking a 134.9% increase and accounting for 16.9% of total revenue [1]. Future Earnings Projections - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.08, 1.47, and 1.91 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 28, 21, and 16 [2].