POP MART(HK:09992) Guohai Securities·2024-04-23 16:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][11] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 40% to 45% year-on-year for Q1 2024, with mainland China growing by 20% to 25% and Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets growing by 245% to 250% [3][4] - The company is experiencing robust growth in its offline channels in mainland China, with a steady expansion of stores and a significant increase in wholesale revenue [4][6] - The online sales have turned positive, particularly on Douyin, which saw a growth of 95% to 100% year-on-year [5][6] - The overseas market is expanding rapidly, with plans to increase the number of stores significantly by the end of 2024 [6][11] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Q1 2024 revenue is expected to grow by 40% to 45% year-on-year, with mainland China contributing 20% to 25% and overseas markets contributing 245% to 250% [3][4] - The company plans to open 30-40 new stores in mainland China in 2024, with a projected same-store growth of over 10% [4] Online Sales Performance - Online sales have shown recovery, with Douyin's sales nearly doubling, while other platforms like Tmall have seen modest growth [5][6] International Expansion - The company is expanding its international presence, with plans to increase the number of overseas stores from 80 at the end of 2023 to 130-140 by the end of 2024 [6][11] - The overseas market has a higher gross margin compared to mainland China, indicating a strong pricing strategy [6] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 82.1 billion, 100.2 billion, and 116.8 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 14.6 billion, 18.1 billion, and 21.4 billion yuan [11][12]