NWF(SH:600975) Guoxin Securities·2024-04-24 01:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market index by more than 20% [41][61]. Core Views - The company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.203 billion yuan in 2023, which is an increase in losses compared to the previous year due to low pig prices [5][45]. - The company achieved a revenue of 5.632 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.52% [5][45]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in pig prices in the second half of 2024, driven by a reduction in industry capacity and a decrease in feed costs [40][61]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company experienced a net loss of 1.203 billion yuan, with asset impairment losses amounting to 222 million yuan [5][10]. - For Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of 1.758 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.81% year-on-year, with a net loss of 454 million yuan [5][10]. - The company’s sales volume for live pigs reached 3.2 million heads in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 75% [5][10]. - The feed production volume was 613,700 tons, up 120% year-on-year, and meat production was 61,800 tons, reflecting a 20% increase [5][10]. Business Segment Performance - The pig farming segment accounted for 67% of the company's revenue in 2023, with expectations for continued growth in output to 4 million heads in 2024 [10][11]. - The slaughtering and cold storage business, which represented 12% of revenue in 2023, is expected to see stable growth with improved gross margins [11][59]. - The raw material trading segment is projected to grow alongside the pig farming scale, benefiting from lower commodity prices [12][30]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 7.895 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits expected to recover to 151 million yuan [23][33]. - For 2025 and 2026, revenues are forecasted at 10.240 billion yuan and 11.644 billion yuan, with net profits of 789 million yuan and 822 million yuan, respectively [23][33]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.12 yuan, 0.63 yuan, and 0.65 yuan [33][61].