新澳股份2023年度业绩点评：业绩符合预期，2024年前低后高可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [16]. Core Views - The company's 2023 performance met expectations, with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 4.44 billion, 404 million, and 389 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year changes of 12.4%, 3.7%, and 13.3% [7]. - The outlook for 2024 is optimistic, with expectations of low performance in the first half and high performance in the second half, driven by both volume and price growth [11][14]. - The company has demonstrated resilience in pricing, with the average price of fine wool yarn increasing despite a decline in raw wool prices, attributed to product structure optimization [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company achieved revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 930 million, 53 million, and 55 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of 12.5%, 2.2%, and 18% [7]. - For the full year 2023, the revenue from various segments showed positive growth: fine wool yarn (+11.3%), wool tops (+12.8%), cashmere (+14.1%), and dyeing and finishing (+21%) [12]. - The gross profit margins for these segments varied, with cashmere showing an increase due to improved capacity utilization, while fine wool yarn and wool tops experienced declines due to falling raw material prices [12]. Future Projections - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 470 million, 560 million, and 650 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 20%, and 16% respectively [14]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 11, 10, and 8 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [14]. Dividend Policy - The company maintained a cash dividend payout ratio of 54.2% for 2023, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.1%, indicating a combination of stable growth, high dividends, and low valuation [14].