Senior(SZ:300568) Orient Securities·2024-04-24 11:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.03 CNY, based on a reasonable valuation level of 23 times the earnings for 2024 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.01 billion CNY for 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 19.9% to 576 million CNY. In Q4 2023, revenue was 800 million CNY, up 1.9% year-on-year, but net profit was negative 90 million CNY, down 169.4% [1]. - The company achieved a sales volume of 2.53 billion square meters of separators in 2023, a significant increase of 48.5%. However, the price of separators continued to decline, with a price drop of approximately 8% to 20% for dry and wet base films and 18% to 23% for coated films throughout the year [1]. - The downward price trend is expected to continue into Q1 2024, with base film prices dropping over 20% compared to the beginning of the year [1]. - The company anticipates limited room for further price reductions in 2024, while maintaining a good sales momentum due to ongoing capacity expansion and efforts to deepen relationships with domestic and international clients [1]. - The launch of the fifth-generation super wet production line is expected to enhance production efficiency and support the company's global expansion strategy, particularly in Sweden and Malaysia [1]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.61 CNY, 0.83 CNY, and 0.99 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment due to declining separator prices [2]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 4.1 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 36.1%, and the net profit is expected to reach 823 million CNY, a growth of 42.7% [7][10]. - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 44.4% for 2024, with a net margin of 20.1% [7][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of April 22, 2024, was 9.66 CNY, with a 52-week high of 17.98 CNY and a low of 9.13 CNY [4]. - Over the past 12 months, the stock has experienced a decline of 45.06% [5]. Comparative Valuation - The report compares the company's valuation with peers, indicating an average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 37.23 for comparable companies, while the company is projected to have a P/E ratio of 15.8 for 2024 [8].