Yanjing Brewery(SZ:000729) Soochow Securities·2024-04-24 17:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer [1] Core Views - In Q1 2024, Yanjing Beer achieved a revenue of 3.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 103 million yuan, up 58.9% year-on-year, indicating a strong start to the year [2][3] - The company has significantly improved its profitability through cost structure optimization and effective loss reduction, with a gross margin of 37.2% in Q1 2024, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The strategic focus for the second half of the 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes building barriers, developing a large product matrix, upgrading production and supply systems, and enhancing digital transformation [3] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 900 million, 1.17 billion, and 1.43 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 40%, 30%, and 22% [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2024, the operating cash flow increased significantly to 890 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 82.8% [2] - The company's operating profit rose to 169 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.4%, with an operating profit margin of 4.7% [3] - The report projects a steady increase in total revenue from 14.21 billion yuan in 2023 to 17.44 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.2% [2][9] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report estimates the earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 to be 0.32 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.13 based on the latest closing price [2][10] - The projected net profit margins for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.8%, 7.1%, and 8.2% respectively, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3][9]