PDH(SH:600048) Soochow Securities·2024-04-25 00:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 346.89 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%, which met expectations [2][8] - Revenue growth was steady, but net profit was under pressure due to several factors, including a higher proportion of low-margin projects, impairment losses on inventory and long-term equity investments totaling 5.05 billion yuan, and a decrease in investment income from joint ventures [2][8] - The company achieved a sales amount of 422.2 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, ranking first in the industry. The sales contribution from the core 38 cities was nearly 90%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [2][8] - The company maintained significant financial advantages, with interest-bearing liabilities of 354.3 billion yuan at the end of 2023, a decrease of 27.1 billion yuan from the end of 2022. The net debt ratio was 61.2% [2][8] - The company increased its dividend payout ratio from 20% to 40%, reflecting confidence in its stable development [2][8] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s total revenue for 2023 was 346.89 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 16.0%, down 6.0 percentage points year-on-year [2][8] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 and 2025 has been adjusted to 12.69 billion yuan and 13.72 billion yuan, respectively [2][8] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.06 yuan, 1.15 yuan, and 1.23 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.6X, 7.0X, and 6.5X [2][8]