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02015LI AUTO(02015) 国盛证券·2024-04-25 01:32

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (02015 HK) with a target price of HKD 151 and a target market cap of RMB 2942 billion [2] Core Views - Li Auto delivered 80,400 vehicles in Q1 2024, a 53% YoY increase, with March sales reaching 28,984 units, up 39% YoY and 43% MoM [1] - The company launched the Li L6 model on April 18, 2024, with orders exceeding 10,000 units within 72 hours [1] - Li Auto plans to launch 3 new pure electric vehicle models in H2 2024, expanding its product lineup to 8 models across 3 series by the end of 2024 [1] - The company aims to build 2,700 supercharging stations (20,000 charging piles) by the end of 2024, covering over 60% of urban areas in tier 1-3 cities and 70% of national highways [1] Financial Performance - Li Auto's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 1791 billion in 2024 to RMB 3599 billion in 2026, with vehicle sales projected to increase from 600,000 units in 2024 to 1 31 million units in 2026 [2] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to remain between 15%-20% in 2024, with non-GAAP net profit expected to reach RMB 148 billion in 2024 and RMB 291 billion in 2026 [2] - Non-GAAP net profit margin is projected to be 8 3% in 2024, 7 9% in 2025, and 8 1% in 2026 [2] Product Strategy - Li Auto's new model, the Li L6, is priced at RMB 249,800 for the Pro version and RMB 279,800 for the Max version, targeting the family SUV market [1] - The company is focusing on building a comprehensive product matrix, with 8 models across 3 series by the end of 2024 [1] Charging Infrastructure - As of March 11, 2024, Li Auto has 351 supercharging stations (1,518 charging piles) in operation, primarily located in highway service areas [1] - The company plans to expand its supercharging network to 2,700 stations (20,000 charging piles) by the end of 2024, with 2,000 stations in urban areas and 700 stations on highways [1]