2023年年报及2024年一季报点评：Q1业绩超市场预期，盈利持续优于同行

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [13][18]. Core Views - The company's Q4 performance met expectations, while Q1 earnings exceeded forecasts. For 2023, the company reported revenue of 4.4 billion, down 8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 720 million, down 44% year-on-year. The gross margin was 28%, a decrease of 14 percentage points, and the net margin was 16%, down 10 percentage points [1][12]. - The company is expected to see a significant recovery in demand starting March, with a projected 40% increase in shipments for 2024. In 2023, the company shipped 141,000 tons of negative electrodes, a 32% increase year-on-year, with Q4 shipments reaching 46,000 tons, up 66% year-on-year [12][13]. - The report highlights the company's cost advantages and predicts an increase in net profit for 2024 and 2025, with estimates of 700 million and 940 million respectively. The target price is set at 53.8 yuan based on a 20x PE ratio for 2024 [13][25]. Financial Summary - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 870 million, down 9.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 150 million, down 35% year-on-year. The gross margin was 26.7%, a decrease of 8.4 percentage points [1][2]. - The company's operating cash flow for 2023 was 420 million, a decrease of 48%, while Q1 2024 showed a negative cash flow of 260 million, down 59% [2][21]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, projecting total revenue of 5.2 billion for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.84% [19].