2024年一季报点评：自营表现亮眼，期待市场活跃度回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongfang Caifu (300059) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance shows a total revenue of 2.456 billion yuan, down 12.60% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.954 billion yuan, down 3.70% year-on-year [3] - The decline in revenue is attributed to low trading activity, particularly in the fund distribution business, which has been under pressure [3] - The self-operated business has shown significant growth, with a 65% year-on-year increase in revenue, helping to offset declines in other areas [3] - The brokerage business saw a slight increase in revenue, while the company's market share in margin financing continues to rise [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 9.288 billion, 10.597 billion, and 12.502 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 13.36%, 14.09%, and 17.98% [3][9] - The expected EPS for the same years is 0.59, 0.67, and 0.79 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.14, 18.53, and 15.71 [3][9] Cost Management - Total operating costs for Q1 2024 were 1.04 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, with significant reductions in sales expenses [3] - R&D expenses increased by 16% year-on-year to 280 million yuan, reflecting ongoing investments in data infrastructure and AI capabilities [3] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 12.45 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 196.53 billion yuan [6] - The company has a P/B ratio of 2.69 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 71.44% [7]