2024年一季报点评：线上主动调整，升级逻辑不变

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with 2024-2026 EPS forecasts of 0.61/0.78/0.95 yuan, and corresponding P/E ratios of 25/20/16x [1][20] Core Views - The company's product strategy is clear, and its multi-channel expansion is progressing smoothly, supporting the "Buy" rating [1] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 30.02%, up 4.04 percentage points year-over-year, driven by lower raw material costs [12] - Net profit margin in Q1 2024 reached 13.63%, up 4.66 percentage points year-over-year, reflecting improved profitability [12] - The company is actively adjusting its online channel strategy to stabilize pricing and align with its overall channel strategy [18] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue grew 23.58% year-over-year to 540 million yuan, while net profit surged 87.73% to 74 million yuan [17] - For 2024-2026, the report forecasts revenue growth of 20.03%, 23.27%, and 33.18%, respectively [19] - Net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.77% from 2022 to 2026, reaching 427 million yuan by 2026 [19] - ROE is projected to increase from 12.88% in 2022 to 23.27% in 2026 [19] Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is 6.91 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 451 million shares [3] - The stock's 52-week high and low are 16.01 yuan and 9.67 yuan, respectively [3] - The 3-month turnover rate is 105.75% [3] Channel and Product Strategy - The company is transitioning from traditional channels to modern and online channels, including snack vending channels [18] - New product categories, such as quail eggs, are well-suited for bulk sales channels, aiding the transition from fixed to bulk product specifications [18] - The company is focusing on high-end deep-sea anchovy products to shift consumer perception from low-priced spicy snacks to higher-value fish snacks [18] Cost and Profitability - Raw material costs for anchovy and quail eggs have decreased, contributing to improved gross margins [12] - The company has secured a six-month supply of anchovy at lower prices, ensuring stable costs in the first half of 2024 [12] - Sales expense ratio in Q1 2024 was 13.12%, up 1.24 percentage points year-over-year, due to increased terminal expenses [12]