保利发展2023年报点评：周期逻辑不改长期逻辑，估值已反应悲观预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5] Core Views - Despite cyclical pressures, the long-term logic remains intact, and the state-owned enterprise may have entered a left-side layout window. The current valuation reflects overly pessimistic expectations, and a recovery opportunity is anticipated [2][8] - The company achieved a revenue of 346.8 billion yuan (+23.4%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.1 billion yuan (-34.1%) in 2023, with a proposed cash dividend of 4.1 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a cash dividend ratio of 40.3% [6][8] - The company’s sales performance was notably better than peers, with a sales amount of 422.2 billion yuan (-7.7%) and a market share increase from 1.25% in 2011 to 3.62% in 2023 [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company completed an area of 40.53 million square meters (+2.0%), achieving a settlement revenue of 322.5 billion yuan (+25.7%) [6] - The gross profit margin for development settlements decreased by 5.5 percentage points to 16.3%, and the overall gross margin fell by 6.0 percentage points to 16.0% [6] - The company plans to complete 34 million square meters in 2024, a decrease of 16.1% from 2023, but expects improved performance as previously high sales prices are reflected in later settlements [6][8] Market Position and Strategy - The company has actively increased its dividend payout ratio, reflecting its commitment as a state-owned enterprise, with a planned cash dividend ratio of no less than 40% for 2023-2025 [7][8] - The company’s land acquisition strategy remains focused on quality, with a land acquisition amount of 163.2 billion yuan (-4.3%) and an equity ratio of 83% [7][8] - The company’s total land reserves stood at 77.9 million square meters by the end of 2023, with plans to start construction on 18 million square meters in 2024, ensuring future supply and scale [7][8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see net profits attributable to shareholders of 12.1 billion yuan, 13.0 billion yuan, and 13.7 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 7.9, 7.4, and 7.0 [8]